AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed with most nearby contracts 1 to 2 cents lower on Friday, despite showing gains at midday. Front month July lost 4.37% on the week. December fell to within 1 1/4 cents of the life of contract low in the overnight session. Managed money spec funds slashed their net long position by 77,383 contracts in the week of 6/12. On that date, they were net long just 36,216 contracts. Total export commitments for corn are now 96% of the newly updated USDA projection, vs. the average at 98%. China sold 779,680 MT of corn at an auction of state reserves on Friday, which represented 19.5% of corn available. South Korea bought a total of nearly 130,000 MT of optional origin corn in separate tenders on Friday morning.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.61 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.70 3/4, down 2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.82 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.92 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures ended the Friday session with strong losses in the last hour of trading. Pre-weekend short covering was met with news that China is planning to place tariffs on US beans. Front Month soy meal was down $4.30/ton, with soy oil a sharp 64 points lower. Early this morning President Trump decided to go ahead with the $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods. Just before close, China retaliated by releasing a statement that they are implementing 25% tariffs on $50 billion of US goods. Duties on $34 billion, including soybeans, will go into effect on July 6. That more than offset this morning’s monthly NOPA crush report that indicated a May record 163.572 mbu of soybeans were crushed by its members. That was 9.6% larger than last year and 1.6% above April crush, but short of most estimates. Soy oil stocks at the end of May were shown at 1.856 billion pounds, well below most expectations and an 11.3% drop from April.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $9.05 1/2, down 21 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $9.11 1/2, down 21 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/4, down 21 1/2 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.39 1/4, down 19 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $338.90, down $4.30,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $29.50, down $0.64

Wheat

Wheat futures saw losses of 2 to 4 cents in most nearby winter wheat contracts, with MPLS down 6 to 8 cents. On the week, front month KC was down 3.44%, with Chicago 3.94% lower and MGE 3.67% in the red. As of the first week of the 18/19 MY, US wheat export commitments (shipments and unshipped sales) are at just 4.526 MMT. That is down 31.5% from the first week in the 17/18 MY, as demand for new crop US wheat has been sluggish. The managed money net long position in Chicago wheat futures and options was cut by 1,383 contracts in the week ending 6/12, with the net position at 14,903. They continued to add to their net long in KC wheat to 61,091 contracts. Following last night’s report that unapproved GMO wheat was found in Alberta, a Canadian providence, Japan suspended its tender and sale of wheat from Canada.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.99 1/2, down 2 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.19 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.70 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished the Friday session with strong gains, as Aug flirted with limit up. Feeder cattle futures were also sharply higher, up $3.075 to $4.30 in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was at $140.73 on June 13, up 3 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday. Choice boxes are down 49 cents to $221.59, with Select boxes 76 cents higher at $202.73. The Ch/Se spread narrowed $4.17 on the week to $18.86. USDA weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 654,000 head through Saturday. That is now 4,000 head below last week as packers are expected to pick up a few head on Saturday. Bids were being shown at $111 across most regions on Friday, following light $110 trade on Thursday. Few, if any, Friday sales were reported. Managed money spec funds in live cattle futures and options added 9,278 contracts to their net long position to 23,271 contracts as of Tuesday.

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $108.450, up $2.200,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $104.775, up $2.900,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $107.025, up $2.225,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.975, up $4.300

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.275, up $3.475

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.850, up $3.075

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled with 30 to 40 cent losses on Friday, with nearby July up a dime. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.38 to $80.09 on June 13. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.69 on Friday afternoon at $84.09. The butt was the only primal cut reported lower. The national base carcass price averaged $82.87, up $1.20 from the previous day. The USDA estimated week to date hog slaughter at 2.215 million head through Saturday. That is 56,000 head lower than the previous week on lighter Saturday slaughter. Managed money was shown to trim their net short position in lean hog futures and options by 5,045 contracts as of Tuesday to -4,153 contracts.

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $81.725, up $0.100,

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $78.250, down $0.350

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $64.275, down $0.375

Cotton

Cotton futures posted losses of 269 to 311 points in most contracts on Friday. Nearby Jult was down 4.44% on the week. President Trump decided to go ahead and escalate the trade war with China by listing 25% tariffs on about $50 billion in Chinese goods in the Federal Register. China responded by placing tariffs on $50 billion of US goods. It is not known whether cotton is on that list. Total export commitments for US upland cotton are still 109% of the recently updated USDA projection of 16 million bales. Typically they are 102% of that projection. The Cotlook A index was down 25 points from the previous day at 101.45 cents/lb on June 14. The weekly AWP was updated to 82.99 cents/lb on Thursday, 172 points above the week prior. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money trimming the cotton net long position by 788 contracts to a net position of 88,911 contracts as of Tuesday

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 90.720, down 269 points,

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 91.280, down 281 points

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 89.850, down 311 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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