AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are currently 4 to 4 1/4 cents lower on Monday, with cooler temperatures and localized rain in the forecast this week. The USDA reported a private export sale of 135,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for the 17/18 marketing year through their daily reporting system. This morning’s export inspections report showed 935,262 MT of exports for the week of July 20, 16.71% lower than the previous week and 29.12% behind last year. Conditions ratings are expected to be steady to down 1% from last week’s 64% good/excellent rating in this afternoon’s report. Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders had added 3,706 contracts to their net long position of 104,670 contracts in corn futures and options trading. China reported June corn imports of 383,092 MT, doubling YTD imports, but still 74.7% behind 2016.

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.75 3/4, down 4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.89 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $4.00 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents

May 18 Corn is at $4.05 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 14 to 14 3/4 cents in the red in the nearby contracts. Front month soy meal is down $4.60/ton, with Aug 17 soy oil 27 points lower. There were 596,920 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week of July 20, nearly twice as much as the previous week but 17.27% lower than last year. YTD, the US has shipped 285 mbu more than in 2016. Soybean conditions are projected to be steady to 1% lower in this week’s Crop Progress report. Managed money added 19,303 contracts to their net long position in the week ending July 18, taking it to 38,351 contracts in soybean futures and options trading at that time. Soybean imports for China totaled 7.687 MMT for the month of June, down 6.7% from June 2016. Safras Mercado is estimating 17/18 Brazilian soybean plantings at 87.70 million acres, up 5.2% from 16/17, with production projected at 113.2 MMT on lower yields.

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.95, down 14 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $10.00 1/4, down 14 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $10.07 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $10.16, down 14 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal is at $325.10, down $4.60

Aug 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.53, down $0.27

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing 10 to 12 1/2 cent losses in the nearby CBT and KC contracts, as MPLS is posting 24 to 31 cents losses at midday. The USDA announced 451,665 MT of wheat was inspected for export during the week of July 20, 23.88% lower than last week and 23.32% behind the same week in 2016. Spring wheat condition ratings are estimated to drop another 1%-2% in this afternoon’s report. In CBT wheat futures and options, spec funds lowered their net CFTC long position to 35,926 contracts, a drop of 8,759 contracts in the week ending July 18. The Russian Ag Ministry estimates that 21.9 MMT of wheat has been harvested through Friday, with total grain harvest at 26.7 MMT, behind last year’s 32.7 MMT.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.86 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.85 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $7.36 1/4, down 29 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are trading sharply lower in most contracts, with Oct and Dec down the limit, after Friday’s bearish COF and Cattle inventory reports. Feeder cattle futures are limit down in most nearby contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.81 on July 20 to $149.03. Wholesale beef prices were higher in the morning report, with choice boxes up 53 cents at $207.44 and select $2.77 cents higher at $197.57. The Ch/Se spread has narrowed to $9.87. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was 622,000 head 25,000 above the same week last year. Cash trade was steady @ $119.50 to $120.50 across most regions. The Cattle on Feed for July 1 was 4.49% over last year, as there was a large chunk of cattle placed during June. Some of these large placements numbers could be attributed to the drought in the North. SD placements were up 67% yr/yr and placements of cattle under 800 lbs were 26.55% larger than in June 2016. Friday’s Cattle Inventory report indicated all cattle and calves at 102.6 million head, 4.5% larger than the last July report in 2015.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $113.750, down $2.675,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $114.400, down $3.000,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $115.175, down $3.000,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $148.450, down $4.500

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $148.650, down $4.500

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $147.450, down $4.500

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are trading 55 cents to $1.125 lower in most contracts on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/20 was 33 cents lower than the previous day at $91.67. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 67 cents lower in the Monday morning report, with a weighted average of $102.11. The national base hog carcass price was $1.19 lower with a weighted average of $82.13.Weekly FI hog slaughter was estimated at 2,213,000 head, 18,000 head more than the previous week and 72,000 more than the same week in 2016.

Aug 17 Hogs are at $80.475, down $0.625,

Oct 17 Hogs are at $66.350, down $0.875

Dec 17 Hogs are at $60.900, down $1.075

Cotton

Cotton futures are showing slight gains in most nearby contracts, with back months lower. Much of northern TX, AR and eastern OK was missed by rain over the past 7 days. The Southeast has seen better coverage, but still at 50% of normal excluding areas closer to the coast. Managed money specs were shown to decrease their CFTC net long position for the ninth week in a row, to 17,363 contracts. This is their smallest net long position in 15 months. The AWP through Thursday is 64.87 cents/lb, down 60 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for July 21 was 85 points higher at 85.05 cents/lb. On Monday, China sold 17,000 MT of the total 29,800 MT offered at an auction of state reserves. In June, they imported 72,412 MT of cotton, down slightly from last year, with 28,714 MT coming from the US.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 69.27, up 13 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.55, up 13 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.33, up 22 points

May 18 Cotton is at 68.540, down 8 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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