Stewart-Peterson Market Commentary

Closing Commentary - June 20, 2018

Top Farmer Midday Update 6-20-18

CORN: Corn futures are lower at mid-session after stumbling in an attempt to take out Tuesday’s session highs. Jul and Dec corn are down 4 cents to 3.49-3/4 and 3.71-1/2, respectively. Trading is light with pressure stemming from ideal crop conditions that should translate to another round of historically high crop ratings next Monday afternoon. Trade war rhetoric has lessened, and managed money is now short corn an estimated 59,000 corn contracts with the majority of the growing season ahead. Technically, yesterday’s sharp drop leaves a bearish target down at 3.60 in Dec corn. Weekly Ethanol Stats showed 110.86 mil bu of corn used in last week’s ethanol production, up from the 99.73 mil bu needed to meet USDA’s projected usage for the marketing year. Export Sales will be out tomorrow morning. Crude is up 62 cents. The dollar did eclipse yesterday’s new high in overnight trade and is now down 3 points.

SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 5-1/2 cents lower to 8.83-1/2 in the Jul contract, 7 lower in Nov to 9.04-1/2. Weather charts still show a wet pattern over the near term and trade war results are on hold until the July 6 deadline, so trade is expected to remain in flux as participants find their place in the extreme trading range carved out the past five sessions. Coming into today’s trade, managed money was net short 45,000 contracts of soybeans; net long 67,000 lots of soymeal; and net short 87,000 lots of soyoil.

WHEAT: Wheat futures are down slightly after a modest recovery to begin the day. Sep CBOT and KC contracts are down 2 to 3 cents to 4.87-1/2 and 4.96-1/2, respectively, while trading an ‘inside day’. Their 200-day moving averages are now serving as resistance after prices tumbled with row crops the past week where managed money began building a short position in SRW contracts.

CATTLE: Cattle futures got jumpy ahead of today’s Fed Cattle exchange, but have since simmered down and are now mostly firm. On line trade was more active than normal with the first 7 of 13 lots offered fetching $110/cwt and the last group passed over at the $112/cwt asking price. A total of 2125 head were offered. Jun cattle are up 0.625 to 109.150. The soon-to-be-lead month, Aug, is up 0.250 to 106.675. Aug feeders are up 0.200 to 149.825. We’ll get a Cattle on Feed report Friday afternoon.

HOGS: Hog futures are sharply lower with the actively traded Aug through Dec contracts falling to their respective range floors. Aug is down 2.75 to 74.975 after hitting the daily 3.000 limit lower. Oct is down 2.324 to 60.850. Nearby Jul hogs are down 1.925 to 79.950.

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