Top Farmer Opening Calls 3-8-18

CORN: Corn futures are mostly unchanged with light volume expected until 11:00 AM CT, when USDA unveils the latest Supply and Demand data. This morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales exceeded trade estimates coming in at 1.86 mil tons (73.2 mil bu) for 2017-18; 70,300 tons for 2018-19. Meanwhile, Japan bought 110,000 tons of 2017-18 corn in a morning USDA announcement. Brazil’s Conab numbers this morning showed Brazil’s 2017-18 total corn crop at 87.28 mil tons vs 88 mil in February, and 97.84 mil tons last season. Today’s USDA report has estimates showing a drop in carryout for U.S. corn. The average of pre-report estimates suggest 40 bil bu reduction in ending stocks from February to 2.312 bil bu. Increases in feed, ethanol and export demand could be seen on the report. South American production is expected to be reduced from last month’s estimates, while world ending stocks are also expected to decline by roughly 2% to 199.4 mmt.

SOYBEANS:Soybean futures are mixed, with May steady at 10.65-1/4, and Nov off 1-1/2 cents to 10.43 ahead of today’s USDA report. Weekly Export Sales were about double the trade estimates. The agency reported 2.51 mil tons (92.2 mil bu) for 2017-18 marketing year crop and 143,900 tons for 2018-19. Brazil’s Conab agency came out with their estimates showing Brazil’s 2017-18 soybean crop at 113.02 mil tons vs 111.55 mil in Feb and 114.08 mil last season. USDA bean ending stocks shouldn’t see much change from last month’s 530 mil bu figure, according to the average of private guesses. However, some feel stocks could drop as a result of higher crush to satisfy soybean meal demand in the face of production issues in Argentina. World stocks are expected to decline to 95.31 mil metric tons, which if realized would be nearly a 3% drop from February. Production in Argentina is expected to be near 48 mmt, while Brazil could increase to close to 114 mmt, compared to 54 mil and 112 mmt estimates from the USDA last month.

WHEAT: Wheat futures are mixed, with May CBOT wheat up a penny to 4.98-3/4, and May KC steady at 5.34-1/4. Weekly Export Sales were 391,500 tons (14.4 mil bu) for 2017-18 and 36,900 tons for 2018-19. Trade estimates for ending stocks in today’s USDA S/D report are expected to increase slightly from last month’s estimate of 1.009 bil bu. World ending stocks are expected to remain heavy, with private estimates looking at a slight reduction to 265.63 mmt.

CATTLE: Cattle futures are seeing choppy, two-sided trade in early dealings. Apr cattle are up .125 to 123.100. Jun is down a nickel to 114.775. Apr feeders are up .125 to 145.500.

HOGS:Hog futures are lower again as momentum to the downside continues led by the May hog contract. May gapped plummeted on the open for a second consecutive day and is down .800 to 71.800. Nearby Apr is down .675 to 67.125. Jun is down .500 to 78.100.

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