AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are trading a penny to 1 1/2 cents per bushel higher this morning. They ended the Thursday session with most contracts 3 to 4 3/4 cents higher on Trade War spin and technical buying after support held earlier in the week. The weekly EIA report showed slower ethanol production by 33,000 barrels per day to 996,000 bpd. Even with the lower production, ethanol stocks rose 447,000 barrels to 23.913 million barrels. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum showed forecast 2019 corn acreage at 92 million acres, which would be 2.9 million larger than last year. Trade ideas for today’s catch up Export Sales report are 4-7 MMT in old crop sales and 50,000-250,000 MT in new crop bookings. This is for the weeks of Jan 10-Feb 14 as FAS gets back to their usual 1 week lag.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are currently 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cents higher after seeing 5 to 8 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday. The dollar is firmer. These was more positive talk about Chinese purchases if/when a deal is struck. Meal futures were up 70 cents/ton in the nearby contract, with soy oil leading the way to the upside, up 53 points. At the Ag Outlook Forum, USDA released an 85 million acre US soybean planting forecast. That would be down 4.2 million acres from last year if realized. Trade estimates for the USDA Export Sales report range from 6-9 MMT in old crop sales for the week of 1/10-2/14, with 100,000-600,000 MT for new crop. That’s 220 to 330 million bushels of old crop in a single report, some of which is known Chinese purchases. The 2018/19 bookings would imply a 1-1.5 MMT weekly average. The average trade estimate ahead of Friday’s Fats & Oils report called for 182.5 mbu of soybeans crushed in December. The USDA Ag Attach in Brazil updated their soybean production estimate to 115.5 MMT, 1.5 MMT below the official USDA number from February 8.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are hovering around UNCH in the Chicago contract this morning. KC is fractionally higher, and MPLS spring wheat is 2 to 4 cents higher on spread unwinding. Wheat posted 4 to 9 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday after four sessions of sharp losses, with MPLS the strongest. USDA forecasts 2019 wheat acreage at 47 MMT in their annual Ag Outlook Forum, down 800,000 acres from last year. USDA’s catch up Export Sales report is projected to show 2-3 MMT in all wheat sales for the weeks of 1/10-2/14. That implies a 333,000-500,000 MT per week in sales on average. Taiwan is seeking 110,000 MT of US wheat in a tender that is due next Tuesday. The IGC trimmed their world wheat ending stocks for 18/19 by 1 to 262 MMT, mainly on lower production.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market News and Commentary

Live cattle futures closed the Thursday session with the front months steady to 70 cents lower and deferred contracts higher. Feeder cattle futures were also mixed with nearby contracts 12.5 to 65 cents lower and back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up a penny on February 20 at $141.11. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday afternoon, widening the Ch/Select spread to $6.66. Choice boxes were up $1.58 at $218.07 with Select 9 cents lower at $211.41. USDA estimated the WTD FI cattle slaughter at 436,000 head through Thursday. That was down 23,000 head from last week and 8,000 lower than the same week last year. The delayed January Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon, with Jan on feed estimated 2.2% larger yr/yr. Cash cattle bids were shown around $123 and $198-201 on Thursday. Asks are around $128 and $205-207.

Lean Hogs Market News and Commentary

Lean Hog futures were just shy of limit gains on Thursday, with most front months $2.60 to $2.975 higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 30 cents from the previous day @ $54.13 on February 19. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.06 on Thursday afternoon at an average weighted price of $61.23. The belly primal was up $9.56. The national base cash hog carcass value was down $1.53 in the PM report, with a weighted average of $46.37. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 1.890 million head through Thursday. That was up 59,000 head from the previous week and 91,000 above the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market News and Commentary

Cotton futures are trading 15 to 76 points higher after a sharp Thursday rally with most nearby contracts 109 to 191 points higher. Progress is reportedly being made between the US and China this week, with reports showing the two countries developing several Memoranda of Understanding. The Cotlook A Index was up 25 points on February 20 to 80.30 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price was updated to 61.80 cents/ lb on Thursday, down 47 points from the previous week. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum showed a forecast of 14.3 million acres for 2019 all cotton acres. The Cotton On Call report from CFTC for the week of February 1 showed unfixed call sales at 16,628 contracts, with unfixed call purchased at 14,928 contracts.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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