Stay The Course


Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Below are my afternoon comments from my twice a day newsletter Commodity Insite. Hope you find something of interest.


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livestock complex

In early dealings, the critters were two sided with hogs posting gains of more than 100 points but all that has since changed. Now, front month hogs are down 80 to 90 points and 200 off the best levels of the day. Feeder cattle are down a whopping 260 to 380 ( March contract!) points. Live cattle are 120 to 140 lower for spot December and February but June futures are down 150 points. There is nothing bullish about the critters today.

In theory, if cattle prices work lower from here, the bear spreads should do well with December the weak link. It would help greatly, to see boxed beef prices begin to leak as well. Avoid buying cattle. Sell rallies.

The hog market did well yesterday but in trouble today. But the day is young and I would only trade the oinkers from the long side of the ledger. Avoid the short side of hogs. Buy breaks.

Cutout values will be released soon and if there is anything of interest I will send out an email. Otherwise, stay the course!

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I also posted 2 tweets which are below.

At 8;00 a.m. on Twitter, I stated. Basically, all US ag-markets are lower this morning. But soy meal is higher and back month hogs up a bit. In my view that suggests soybeans may yet catch a bid while hog futures trying to show independent strength.

Be careful being short!

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At 10:02 a.m. on Twitter, I stated, Feeder cattle just hit a 2 week low with March futures off as much as 400 plus points. The live cattle market is now 142 in the ugly for December futures.

I wonder how the funds that are a big long will view such weakness for tomorrow? Time will tell.

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I would avoid the long side of cattle and the short side of hogs. My message this afternoon is to, "stay the course!"

If interested in my twice a day newsletter drop me a line at commodityinsite1@gmail.com. Or, call me at 406 682 5010. And be sure and follow me on twitter at jerry welch@commodityinsite.


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