Ag Market Commentary

Nearby corn futures finished the day with fractional gains, touching a penny for May contracts. The EIA posted up to date ethanol production numbers for the week ending 11/8. Ethanol production averaged 1.03 million barrels per day over the week, which was another uptick in average daily production, up 16,000 barrels wk/wk. Weekly ethanol production has been rising for the last 7 weeks. While production increased, ethanol stocks decreased to 20.985 million barrels. Most of the drawe came from the Midwest region, where ethanol stocks fell by 333,000 barrels, the Gulf region’s ethanol stocks were 255,000 barrels less wk/wk while the east coast used 178,000 barrels more than their production. Strategie Grains cut their 19/20 EU maize crop estimate 100,000 MT to 63.5 MMT, despite an increase in French production.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.75 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.84 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.90 3/4, up 1 cent

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.96 1/2, up 3/4 cent

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Nov bean futures expired at $9.0025 per bushel. Nearby contracts, that are still in play, made gains of 1 to 1/2 cents. Soybean meal finished Thursday’s session with a $1.00/ton loss. Soybean oil gained 25 points on the day. The NOPA Oilseed Crush Report will be released tomorrow, and analysts are expecting the October soybean crush to be 166.8 mbu. September crush was 10 mbu below trade projections at 152.566. The USDA reported a private sale of 129,000 MT of soybeans to China for 19/20 delivery this morning. The trade is expecting USDA to show .08-1.4 MMT in soybean export bookings for the week of 11/7. Jan Soybean meal futures on the Dalian commodities exchange were up .42% on the day with 1.454 million in open interest.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.00 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.16 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.29 1/2, up 1 cent,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.41 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $303.10, down $1.00,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.78, up $0.25

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Nearby wheat futures remained lower through Thursday, with Chicago SRW noticing the biggest losses of 1 1/4 to 3 cents. Kansas City HRW wheat futures closed with losses of 1 1/4 to 2 1/2 cents. MLPS had some firmness in further out contracts, but still saw losses of 2 to 2 1/2 cents in the front months. Analysts expect USDA to show 200,000-500,000 MT in US wheat export sales for the week that ended on 11/7. Rosario Grain Exchange lowered the expected Argentinean wheat production to 19 MMT. Egypt purchased a total of 465,000 MT of wheat with 120,000 MT from Ukraine and 345,000 MT from Russia for January 5-15 delivery. Dec Milling Wheat futures on the EU commodities exchange (MATIF) were firm as open interest steadily falls (down 18.65% since beginning of Nov).

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.07 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.22 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.12 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were up by as much as 97 cents after posting losses yesterday. Feeder cattle futures rallied $0.75 to $1.22 on a turnaround Thursday. The 11/13 CME Feeder Cattle index was lower by $0.05 on to $147.39. Afternoon boxed beef prices were lower. Choice boxes were seen $1.28 lower at $241.06, while select boxes had fallen by $1.69 to $215.84. There will be an additional online auction on the Fed Cattle Exchange Friday, with 1,264 head listed. Light cash trade of $115 in the South and $116.50 in NE has been reported so far this week, Nebraska dressed trades have gained $1.00 over last week, with $182.00 sales reported today. JBS stated that beef consumption in China is “impressive”, citing the inflation caused by the pork shortage. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter weekly total is at 467,000 as of Thursday. That is 6,000 head below the same pace a year ago and 3,000 head below last Thursday’s weekly total.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.075, up $0.975,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $124.925, up $0.825,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $126.100, up $0.425,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.625, up $1.050

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.050, up $1.225

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.075, up $0.750

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures finished the day with losses of $0.37 to $1.45 in the front months. The 11/12 CME Lean Hog Index was up 61 cents to $59.55. The afternoon pork carcass cutout value from USDA was only 2 cents lower. The biggest moves for the primal cuts were by picnics (down $2.18) and ribs (up $1.93). The national average base hog price 4 cents lower this afternoon at $42.20. China lifted their ban on U.S. poultry imports in an announcement this afternoon. The USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter as of 11/14 was 1.916 million head; that is 49,000 head behind last week’s pace.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $62.750, down $0.375,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $73.375, down $1.175

APR 20 Hogs closed at $80.300, down $1.450

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were mixed after Thursday’s round of trading. Dec futures rallied to finish up 4 points after midday lows. The other nearby futures finished 4 to 7 points lower. The 11/13 Cotlook A Index regained 40 points to 75.40 cents/lb. As of 11/14, cash sales on The Seam reached 12,734 (ave. price of 57.76 cents/bale) bales through the week. That is 63.3% of last week’s total accumulated sales, and is up 3,718 bales over last week’s pace through 11/06. The USDA FSA updated the AWP for cotton to 57.06 cents/lb, that is back up 46 points following last week’s number. The New AWP will be good until 11/21’s update.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.26, up 4 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 66.01, down 4 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 67.2, down 4 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 68.3, down 7 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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