A Contrarian Thought: CBOE Volatility Index

Above is a weekly CBOE VIX (volatility) price chart. The vertical lines display time cycle studies. The indexs most recent low reading is on the extreme of the last three decades. Option premiums have been steadily depressed. Investor funds of Volatility sensitive ETF are at record levels of 2.3 billion. These instruments are designed to appreciate in a bearish VIX environment. Algo run programs are extremely engaged in short premium strategies. The effect of this current mass mindset can be observed in multiple markets. Market moves in our opinion are highly correlated to investor psychology whether it is overly pessimistic or euphoric. Market extremes are not uncommonly seen in this landscape. It is our belief, as a measure of risk/reward , the opportunity will soon present itself for a contrarian play. Blended times cycles suggest a possible change of course around mid to late December. Please contact us at Walsh for further insights addressing our recommended strategies to capitalize on this development.

John Lunney

Senior Technical Analyst

Walsh Trading

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