WALSH PURE SPREADER  

                                                           -Pure Hedge Division –

Rich Moran                                                                                                                       7/11/2025

                     AUG-NOV SOYBEAN SPREAD (ZSQ25-ZSX25)

I am following up on an article I wrote a few weeks ago (6/18/25) in regard to the AUG-NOV SOYBEAN SPREAD (ZSQ25-ZSX25).  The spread had made a new 14-day low two days in a row at that point. It had gone from +19¾ on 6/10/25 to the new 14-day low of +6 on 6/18/25 and it settled that day at +8½.

The spread had been going down as the soybeans were on the rise, but I had mentioned that I felt the downward trend in the spread could possibly continue even if the soybean market was to pause or dip. As the soybean market has been on its recent decline, the spread’s downward trend has continued and taken it into negative territory and settled -3 today.

I had suggested that if we made a new 52-week low below +2¾ while remaining below both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, it might be a good time to short the spread.  I had suggested risking 4 cents (only $200 per spread).  Depending on where you may have gotten in, this may have stopped you out.  If you were able to short the spread and you still have them on, you might want to keep these shorts in the spread for now.  If you are not yet short the spread yet, I think it might not be too late.

Full-Carry for the AUG-NOV Bean Spread is 42.43.  So that would put the spread at -42.43.  I am not suggesting planning on full-carry, but if we can get just halfway there, that would take us to -21-ish.

As long as this spread remains below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think it could continue to go lower.  I suggest trying to get short the spread near -2 or -1 …. 

Risking 6 cents or $300 Per Spread to Make 18 cents or $900 Per Spread.

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Following up on a few past trade ideas:

1.  7/9/2025 - (LEG26x2)-GFQ25-ZCU25 –Today’s Settlement: 282.13

(FEB ’26 Live Cattle x 2, AUG ’25 Feeder Cattle, SEP ’25 Corn - Cattle Crush Spread)

Still looking to get short and waiting for the sell signal(s).

     2.  7/2/2025 – ZMQ25-ZMZ25 – Today’s Settlement: -13.3

(AUG-DEC ’25 Soybean Meal Spread)

Getting really close to 14-day and 21-day moving averages. If it gets above those averages, I am still looking to buy the spread.

    3.  6/27/2025 – ZLQ25-ZLZ25 – Today’s Settlement: +10

AUG-DEC ’25 Soybean Oil Spread)

I suggest moving our buy level up to from -.50 to -.40

   4.  6/25/25 – ZWU25-ZWZ25 – Today’s Settlement: -20½ 

(SEP-DEC ’25 Wheat Spread)

I suggest moving our -27 bid up to -25 with the same risk parameters (risk 5 cents to make 15 cents.

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.co

Direct : (312)985-0298

Cell : (773)502-5321

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