The July WASDE report was released this morning from the USDA. December corn made a high at 418 after the numbers came out, but faded the rest of the day, closing at 412 1/4. December corn has support at 409, 400, and 393; resistance is at 416 and 420. 

New Crop

New crop ending stocks were 1.66 billion bushels (bb), less than the trade expectation at 1.722 bb. The stocks/use ratio is now 10.8%, a reduction of half a percent from last month’s report. 

Old Crop

Old crop ending stocks were reduced to 1.34 bb, compared to the trade estimate at 1.352 bb and the June estimate at 1.365 bb. As mentioned in my article on Wednesday, exports were raised by 100 million bushels (mb). Feed and residual use was cut 75 mb based on indicated disappearance in the June 30^th Grain Stocks report. Old crop stocks/use is 8.75%. 

Global 

Global new crop ending stocks were also reported less than expected at 272.1 million metric tons (mmt), which is 3.1 mmt less than June. The trade estimate for global ending stocks prior to the report was 276.8 mmt. Old crop ending stocks saw a slight reduction from June at 285 mmt to 284.2 mmt. 

The dollar is starting to inch higher again, but it is still nowhere close to where it was at the start of the year. The weaker dollar gives the U.S. a price advantage versus Brazil, which should continue to help exports. With the large number of shorts, trade deals could get corn moving higher again quickly as seen with the rumors of a Chinese purchase announcement ahead of the Independence Day weekend.

If you like this article and would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list

Sign Up Now

Please consider the following trade idea:

Sell 2 puts for a 10 1/2 cent credit or collect $525/Trade Package and pay 12 1/2 cents or $625 for the $4.25 call. This trade costs you nothing to put on, you actually get a $525 credit/Trade Package to put on the trade. If Dec corn hits $3.84 or lower buy back the entire spread, capping downside at $1,075 per spread. The low for the year on the continuous contract is $3.85. 

Profit = 45 1/2 cents or $2,275/Trade Package with corn at $4.60 at expiration,

Profit = 85 1/2 cents or $4,275/Trade Package with corn at $5.00 at expiration,

Profit = 135 1/2 cents or $6,775/Trade Package with corn at $5.50 at expiration

ALL PRICES ARE FRIDAY’S SETTLEMENT – DEC ’25 CORN CLOSED @ 412 1/4

If you like this article and would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list

Sign Up Now

If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.

Open An Account

Hans Schmit, Walsh Trading

Direct 312-765-7311 Toll Free 800-993-5449

hschmit@walshtrading.com    www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.