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Hogs Break Down While the Cattle Markets Surge
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list -Sign Up Now For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Tuesdays, and my next webinar will be Tuesday, July 15, 2025, at 3:15 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar. August Lean Hogs opened higher and made the high of the day at 107.40. The market turned lower and broke down the rest of the session to the low at 104.55. It settled near the low at 104.675. The breakdown took price to a new low for the down move, testing support at the rising 50-DMA now at 104.70. There is a confluence of support with the key level at 104.325 just below the 50-DMA. The early high tested resistance at 106.85 and the declining 8-DMA now at 106.70. Slowing exports, the tariff threat on Brazil has lowered their currency versus the US Dollar further assisting their competitiveness with Mexico as they try to capture more business has helped pressure the cutout recently. Mexico has been our largest customer for pork but recently, they have been erratic with pork purchases as our ham prices have become expensive. This could open the door for an aggressive Brazil and keep the pressure on the cutout so we can stay competitive. Cash could come under more pressure and follow futures lower. We’ll see!... If Hogs can hold settlement, it could rebound and work its way back to re-test resistance at the declining 8-DMA and 106.85. Resistance then comes in at 107.925. A failure from support could see price test support at the 101.975. Support then comes in at 100.075. The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 112.13 as of 07/10/2025. The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 107.14 as of 07/09/2025. Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 441,000, which is above last week’s 2,000 and below last year’s 448,671. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 39,000, which is above last week’s 23,000 and last year’s 28,765. The estimated total for the week is 2,371,000, which is above last week’s 1,846,000 and last year’s 2,369172. August Feeder Cattle opened higher and made the low at 320.375. The low tested support at 321.00. Price reversed course and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 325.775. Settlement was near the high and it was a new all-time high settlement at 325.325. Friday’s rally though a strong rally, was a day of consolidation. It only was able to recover most of the decline of Thursday’s record high price at 326.875 to its low at 318.65. It formed an inside candlestick, indicating indecision. The rally followed a surge in the Feeder Index but the futures have outpaced the index and at these levels’ traders were cautious, unable to build upon the premium the futures have over the index. Futures and cash are at lofty levels and every day traders are asking, in my opinion, are we at or near the top? And, it seems the answer is no! Bearish candles and patterns have been negated almost routinely as the bulls just stampede past previous highs. Throughout the feeder markets, all weight classes seem to be constantly making new all-time high prices in most areas as producers keep bidding up price. The question remains Are we at or near the top? We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price re-test support at 321.00. Support then comes in at 319.45. If settlement holds, price could test resistance at the all-time high at 326.875. Pivot resistance is next at 327.575. R2 is at 329.375 and R3 is at 332.975. The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 323.37 as of 07/10/2025. August Live Cattle opened higher and made the low at 218.75. The low tested support at 218.625. It held and price raced to a new all-time high at the session high at 223.275. It consolidated near the high the rest of the session and settled near the high at 222.20. The futures strength is all about the surprising cash market. With the cutout index peaking and since falling, cash prices were expected to pull back some more as the packer backs off its aggressive purchases. This didn’t happen. Packers were caught short after making minimal purchases the past few weeks. They needed to up their ante to get cattle bought as the producer sat on their hands and made the packing industry sweat. With the USDA closing off Mexico and the Trump administration threatening tariffs on Brazil, the producer correctly surmised the packer would need to be aggressive in order to get cattle bought. They were right and after a 3-week pullback in price, it looks like cattle prices will be higher this week as the packing industry were paying higher prices in all regions. It was so bad for the packer they had to take price up to 242.00 to get cattle bought. With futures trading at a large discount to the cash market, traders bid up price accordingly. If it weren’t for the differential in price between the South and the North, futures likely would have ripped even higher. Futures have liked to stay around 4 – 5 handles discount to the lowest area’s price. This week’s low cash price was 225.00, but saw higher prices as the week wore on. Packer margins are sinking again after recovering off of the cutout strength and cash weakness the previous 3-weeks. The cutout was crushed on Friday. Cash was strong. What will the packer attempt in order to get cash prices lower again? Can they get prices down? Can they get a resurgence it the cutout? Weights were down on this week’s report. It seems producers are current. Slaughter wasn’t as high as analysts expected. The cutout still didn’t rally. Slowing slaughter is not working right now. What will the packer do to reclaim control of the markets? Can They? We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price test support at 220.05. Support then comes in at 218.625. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 223.275. Resistance then comes in at pivot resistance at 224.18. R2 is at 225.99. R3 is at 228.70. Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts collapsed 6.02 to 378.64 and select fell 4.37 to 366.49. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 12.16 and the load count was 138. Friday’s estimated slaughter is 101,000, which is above last week’s 1,000 and below last year’s 118,829. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 3,000, which is above last week’s 1,000 and below last year’s 6,516. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 568,000, which is above last week’s 474,000 and below last year’s 604,573. The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate on good demand in Kansas. Compared to last week, live purchases in Kansas have been 4.00-5.00 higher from 228.00-230.00. Negotiated cash trade has been moderate on good demand in Nebraska. Compared to last week, live purchases have been 8.00-10.00 higher at 240.00. Dressed purchases, compared to Thursday, have been steady at 380.00. Negotiated cash trade in the Western Cornbelt has been moderate to heavy on good demand. Compared to Thursday, live purchases have been steady to 5.00 higher while dressed purchases have been steady at 380.00. In the Texas Panhandle, negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand. The last market test in the Texas Panhandle was Thursday at 228.00. The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 225.00 – 242.00 and 360.00 – 380.00 on a dressed basis (so far). **Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.** Ben DiCostanzo Senior Livestock Analyst Walsh Trading, Inc. Direct: 312.957.4163 888.391.7894 Fax: 312.256.0109 Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member. This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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