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October Lean Hogs opened higher, rallied to the high of the day at 98.175 and then turned lower. It traded down to an early low and then drifted most of the session within the early range. It pushed below the early low at the end of the day to the session low at 97.425 and then settled near the low at 97.525. The price action formed an inside candlestick, with the Monday range within the Friday range. Friday’s price action saw price form a Tweezer Top as the Friday high was the same as the Thursday high at 98.45. This high along with the Monday high was below resistance at 98.475. The failure at resistance and the Tweezer Top indicates a potential over bought situation and the Monday action furthers that narrative as it was lower on the day. However, it was an Inside Candlestick which represents indecision in my opinion, and it also failed to penetrate support at 97.30. This movement puts Hogs in a position it seems to like…. Consolidating after a move(either higher (as in this case) or lower).It will take a breakout above the Tweezer Top to cancel the negative indication from this formation, which is heightened by the inside candle and support and resistance levels the price action is stuck between. The Monday candle was also the narrowest range in the past 7-sessions. This usually leads to a volatile session upcoming. The cash and cutout markets remain stuck. They are at levels higher than normal seasonally but have essentially gone nowhere over the past month. Slaughter finally broke 2,500,000 last week but remains below last year. Exports have been weaker than last year’s record pace so, it seems consumer demand is keeping prices from dropping as maybe we are starting to see consumers move from beef to the cheaper protein?? We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a re-test resistance at the Tweezer Top. Resistance then comes in at 100.075. A failure from 97.30 could see price test support at the rising 8-DMA now at 95.525. Support then comes in at the rising 13-DMA now at 95.75. Support is nearby at 95.30. 

The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 114.55 as of 09/12/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 106.14 as of 09/11/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 490,000, which is above last week’s 488,000 and last year’s 474,846.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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