Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 8 3/4 to 10 1/2 cents lower in the nearby contracts post report. In this morning’s USDA supply and demand report, the US corn yield was raised 0.4 bpa to 169.9 bpa, running against most trade expectations. This caused production to jump 31 mbu to 14.184 bbu. The US 17/18 ending stocks number was increased 62 mbu to 2.335 bbu, while old crop ending stocks dropped 20 mbu to 2.35 bbu. On the world side of things, the USDA shifted 17/18 world ending stocks +1.6 MMT to 202.47 MMT. The USDA Crop Progress report showed 5% of the US corn crop has been harvested, vs. the average of 6%. In addition, corn conditions were unchanged from last week at 61% gd/ex.

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.36 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.47, down 10 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.59 3/4, down 10 cents

May 18 Corn is at $3.67 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents

Soybean futures are mostly 15 to 17 1/4 cents in the red following this morning’s September WASDE report. Sept soy meal is down $5.80/ton, with nearby bean oil 18 points lower. A private export sale of 132,000 MT to Unknown Destinations for 17/18 was announced this morning through the USDA’s daily reporting system. The USDA adjusted their 2017 US national soybean yield up 0.5 bpa to 49.9 bpa. Consequently, NASS increased production 50 mbu to 4.431 mbu. Old crop ending stocks were trimmed 25 million bushels on strong exports. New crop US ending stocks were unchanged from the August report at 475 mbu. World ending stock for 17/18 shifted down just 0.25 MMT to 97.53 MMT. Soybean conditions fell 1% to 60 gd/ex, and the Brugler500 Index was down 2 points to 356.

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.37 1/2, down 17 1/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.44 3/4, down 15 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.55, down 15 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.63 3/4, down 14 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybean Meal is at $293.10, down $5.80

Sep 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.61, down $0.18

Wheat futures are showing 3 to 5 cent losses in most CBT and KC contracts, with MPLS 10 to 13 1/4 cents in the red. The US supply and demand table was left unchanged for 17/18, with production at 1.739 bbu, and ending stocks at 933 mbu. They are waiting on the September 29 Small Grains report for data. World wheat ending stocks for new crop was adjusted to 263.14 MMT, a 1.55 MMT drop from August. The USDA Crop Progress report showed 95% of the spring wheat crop harvested, 8% above the average. The winter wheat crop was reported at 5% planted, vs. the average of 6%. Japan is seeking 139,382 MT of wheat from Australia, Canada and the US in their weekly MOA tender. It calls for 55,645 MT of US specific wheat, with the tender to close Thursday.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.31, down 3 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.30 3/4, down 4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.29, down 13 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures are currently 92.5 cents to $1.20 lower at midday. Feeder cattle futures are down 55 to 77.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was up 75 cents from the previous day at $149.01 on September 8. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the Tuesday morning report, with the Ch/Se spread narrowing to just 33 cents. Choice was down 32 cents at $191.24, as select boxes were 53 cents higher at $190.91. FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 116,000 head on Monday, which is 5,000 head larger than the same week in 2016. Wednesday’s FCE online auction will show 1,063 head for sale, with a majority from KS. In this morning’s USDA supply and demand table, beef production for 2017 was lowered 140 million pounds to 26.559 billion pounds.

Oct 17 Cattle are at $106.275, down $0.925,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $111.675, down $1.200,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $115.400, down $1.150,

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $147.675, down $0.775

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $148.700, down $0.650

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle are at $148.750, down $0.550

Lean hog futures are posting 70 cent to $1.675 losses on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/8 was $1.02 lower than the previous day at $67.92. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.74 lower in the Tuesday morning report, with a weighted average of $80.34. The ham was the only cut reported higher. The national base hog carcass was down 92 cents in the AM report at 56.24. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 450,000 through Monday, 9,000 larger than the same week in 2016. Pork production for 2017 was raised 35 million pounds by the USDA this morning to 25.841 billion pounds.

Oct 17 Hogs are at $59.900, down $1.675,

Dec 17 Hogs are at $57.450, down $1.175

Feb 18 Hogs are at $62.975, down $0.700

Cotton futures are nearing limit losses on Tuesday, after bearish news from the WASDE this morning. The USDA raised the 2017 US cotton yield 16 lbs/ac to 902 lbs/ac in this morning’s supply and demand report. Average yields were raised in all states except AR and GA. US 2017 production rose 1.21 million bales to 21.76 bales. US new crop ending stocks rose 0.2 million bales to 6 million bales. World ending stocks for 2017/18 jumped 2.45 million bales 92.54 million bales. As of Sunday, 9% of the crop was harvested, compared to the average of 4%. Conditions fell 2% to 63% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 was down 2 to 365. The Cotlook A index for September 11 was35 points higher at 84.4 cents/lb.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 70.75, down 296 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 69.11, down 300 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.52, down 295 points

May 18 Cotton is at 69.100, down 266 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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