Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 1-2 cents higher at midday. The main story on Thursday was the USDA raising their 17/18 US corn yield projection to an all time record to 175.4 bpa. That estimate has moved +5.9 bpa since the August report. US ending stocks were hiked but the increase was limited by larger exports and feed and residual, up 75 mbu each. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed weekly shipments of just 489,835 MT, well short of this time last year. Total export commitments are now 21.67% lower than this time last year, gaining 5.19% over the last week.

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.43, up 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.56 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.64 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.72 1/2, up 1 cent



Soybean futures are trading 4 to 5 cents in the green, following Thursday’s losses. December meal is up $2.80/ton, with nearby bean oil down 15 points. The USDA raised the average farm price for soybeans 10 cents to $8.45 - $10.15, with the midpoint @ $9.30. Carryover from 16/17 was increased 1.42 MMT in yesterday’s USDA report, causing 17/18 ending stock to bump higher. The USDA reported 2.52 MMT of soybean exports during the week of 11/2. That was 6.2% lower than last week and down 14.1% from this week a year ago. Soybean export commitments so far this year are now lagging last year by 12.9%, losing ground since last week on fewer sales and shipments.

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.79 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.89, up 4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $10.00, up 4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.09 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal is at $314.60, up $2.80

Dec 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.99, down $0.15



Wheat futures are mostly 3-4 cents higher in the CBT and KC contracts at midday, with MPLS fractionally higher. Thursday’s weekly USDA Export Sales report showed shipments of just 297,987 MT, a drop of 21.16% from last week. Export commitments of all wheat actually gained on last week by 0.3% to 4.6% lower than last year, as sales were much improved. Russia’s production was increased 1 MMT to 83 MMT. Russia is hoping to improve their export infrastructure, with a goal to increase grain exports 50% in the next 3 years to an average of 7.5 MMT/ month.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.32, up 3 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.33, up 4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.48 3/4, up 3/4 cent



Live cattle futures are showing losses of $2 to $2.425 in the front months on Friday. Feeder cattle futures are down 52.5 cents to $1.225, trying to narrow the feeder/fat spreads. The CME feeder cattle index was 3 cents lower at $158.98 on November 8. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Friday morning. Choice was up $1.84 at $214.58, with select boxes $1.09 lower at $197.21. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter through Thursday was 464,000 head, 3,000 fewer than the previous week and 2,000 head above the same week last year. The FAS reported export shipments of beef lower compared to last week at 14,857 MT. Total 2017 commitments for exports of beef are still 10.9% above last year.

Dec 17 Cattle are at $120.050, down $2.425,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $126.225, down $2.300,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $126.675, down $2.075,

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle are at $157.950, down $0.525

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $156.625, down $1.225

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.475, down $0.925



Lean hog futures are mostly 20 to 72.5 cents lower on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/8 was down 41 cents to $67.94. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 37 cents in the Friday morning report. A sharply lower loin and picnic were offset by a sharply higher butt and ham. The national base hog average was down 8 cents at $59.79 this morning. Week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,846,000 head through Thursday. That is 15,000 head larger than the previous week and 71,000 head above the same week in 2016. Pork exports for the week of November 2 came in at 23,210 MT, slightly lower wk/wk but still above last year.

Dec 17 Hogs are at $62.450, down $0.725,

Feb 18 Hogs are at $70.000, down $0.225

Apr 18 Hogs are at $73.825, down $0.200



Cotton futures are 50 to 69 points higher at midday. All upland cotton export shipments for the week of November 2 totaled 124,292 RB, nearly 43.13% over last week but still lagging last year. On Thursday, the USDA raised the US average yield 11 lbs/ac to 900 lbs/ac, which would be a record. They also adjusted the average farm price of cotton to a range of 60-66 cents/lb, with a midpoint of 63 cents/lb, up 3 cents. The USDA average world price (AWP) was updated to 61.38 cents/lb, 33 points higher than the previous week. The Cotlook A index for November 9 was 50 points higher to 79.60 cents/lb.

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.98, up 69 points,

Mar 18 Cotton is at 69.1, up 56 points

May 18 Cotton is at 70.07, up 53 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 70.650, up 50 points






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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